By Chris Maztre, UNOCU Research
Solana is trading at approximately $90, down roughly 70% from its all-time high of $294 set in January 2025. After hitting a 52-week low near $78 in late February, SOL has bounced approximately 20% and appears to be finding its footing. For treasury managers watching from the sidelines, the question is straightforward: is this a buying opportunity, or the beginning of a longer slide?
Our view is that both are true, depending on your time horizon. The short-term picture offers a tradeable rally. The medium-term picture carries meaningful downside risk. And the long-term setup is among the most compelling in crypto. The key is understanding where you are in the cycle and building your position accordingly.
Solana Follows BTC — With Bigger Swings
One of the most reliable patterns in crypto is that altcoins follow Bitcoin's macro trajectory but with amplified volatility in both directions. Solana is no exception. When BTC rallies, SOL tends to outperform. When BTC corrects, SOL falls harder and faster.
This is standard higher-beta behavior. It is not a flaw — it is a structural feature of assets that sit further out on the risk curve. For treasury managers, this means SOL offers greater upside in growth windows and requires more disciplined risk management during corrections. The same macro pattern we outlined in our Bitcoin analysis applies here: we expect growth through the May–July window, a correction into November driven by midterm election uncertainty, and a long-term recovery that takes SOL to new highs.
The difference is magnitude. Where BTC might move 30–40% in a given window, SOL can move 60–100%. That asymmetry cuts both ways, and your position sizing should reflect it.
Our SOL Outlook
We see three distinct phases for Solana over the coming 18 months.
Near-term (May–July 2026): $140–$180. As the broader crypto market enters its seasonal growth window, we expect SOL to participate meaningfully. Institutional inflows through newly launched spot ETFs, improving on-chain metrics, and general risk-on sentiment should push SOL toward the $140–$180 range. From current levels, that represents 55–100% upside — the kind of move that is entirely consistent with SOL’s historical behavior during bullish periods.
Medium-term (September–November 2026): $30–$45. This is the part that requires discipline. As midterm election uncertainty builds and risk appetite contracts, we expect altcoins to bear the brunt of the correction. Our downside target for SOL in this window is $30–$45. That is a significant drawdown from current prices, but it is consistent with SOL’s historical volatility profile. A 60–70% drawdown from a local peak is not unusual for high-beta crypto assets during risk-off periods.
Long-term (2027–2028): New all-time high. We expect Solana to reach a new all-time high over the 2027–2028 period. The fundamental case is strong: Solana is positioning itself as one of the centrepieces of crypto treasury infrastructure, with fast and low-cost transactions, robust staking yields around 6% APY, a growing DeFi ecosystem, and increasing institutional adoption through spot ETFs. The Firedancer and Alpenglow upgrades on the development roadmap should further strengthen network performance and reliability.
Why the Entry Price Matters Less Than You Think
A question we hear frequently: should I wait for a lower entry? The honest answer is that the difference between buying at $90 and buying at $45 matters less than most people assume — provided you are building a compounding position rather than making a one-off trade.
Consider a treasury manager who begins accumulating SOL at $90 and stakes it at approximately 6% APY through validators like Helius, Jupiter, or Figment. That position is generating yield from day one. If SOL pulls back to $45 in the November correction, that same manager has the opportunity to significantly lower their average cost while continuing to earn staking rewards on the entire position. By the time SOL recovers to a new all-time high, the total return on a disciplined, yield-generating accumulation strategy far exceeds the return from trying to time the perfect bottom.
The goal is not to predict the exact low. It is to build a position that generates sustainable income, compounds over time, and gives you optionality through market cycles. Whether your average cost is $70 or $55, the staking yield continues to accrue, and the long-term directional thesis remains intact.
We will explore this concept in more detail in an upcoming blog post on building a diversified crypto portfolio — one designed to maximise yield, manage risk across assets, and extend your treasury’s runway regardless of short-term price action.
Solana as Treasury Infrastructure
Solana’s value proposition for treasury managers extends well beyond price appreciation. The network is increasingly becoming core infrastructure for organizations that want to earn yield, move capital efficiently, and access decentralised financial services.
• Native staking yields of approximately 6% APY — among the highest available on any major chain. This is real, protocol-level yield generated through network validation, not synthetic DeFi returns with layered smart contract risk.
• Negligible transaction costs — fractions of a cent per transaction, making Solana practical for high-frequency treasury operations and micro-transactions.
• Growing institutional presence — the launch of Solana spot ETFs, including Bitwise BSOL and Grayscale GSOL, has attracted over $117 million in early inflows. This is a meaningful signal of institutional validation and provides regulated on-ramps for traditional capital.
• Expanding DeFi ecosystem — lending, borrowing, and liquidity provision on Solana offer additional yield opportunities for treasuries willing to deploy capital beyond vanilla staking.
• Firedancer and Alpenglow upgrades — these upcoming protocol improvements are designed to enhance throughput, reduce latency, and improve the network’s resilience. For treasury managers, this translates to greater confidence in Solana as long-term infrastructure.
For unocu.com users, Solana is natively supported. Connect a SOL wallet and staking data flows directly into Compound and Umbrella, giving you real-time visibility over yield generation and portfolio performance.
What This Means for Your Treasury
Here is how to put this analysis into practice using the UNOCU platform:
• Obtain — use our research tools to evaluate SOL alongside other assets. Compare risk-adjusted returns, on-chain activity metrics, and staking yields across chains before committing capital.
• Compound — track your SOL staking rewards in real time. At approximately 6% APY, staking is a material contributor to treasury income, and Compound ensures you have full visibility over what your positions are earning.
• Nurture — model how SOL positions affect your runway and self-sufficiency score under bear, base, and bull scenarios. Stress-test your portfolio before the market does it for you.
• Utilize — manage any SOL trading positions. Use the growth window to take profits, and do not hold through the correction out of emotional attachment. Profits should fuel revenue-generating purchases, not sit idle.
A consistent reminder: do not fall in love with any single asset. Conviction is useful. Attachment is not. Use profits to fund purchases that generate revenue and extend your runway.
The Bottom Line
Solana’s long-term setup is compelling. A high-performance network with strong staking yields, growing institutional adoption, and a clear development roadmap — trading at a 70% discount to its all-time high. For patient treasury managers, the opportunity is there.
But discipline matters more than conviction. The data suggests a tradeable rally into mid-year, followed by a meaningful correction before the long-term trend reasserts itself. Build your position. Earn the yield. Manage your risk through the cycle. And when the correction comes, be ready to lower your average cost, not panic out of your position.
The treasury managers who will benefit most from Solana’s next cycle are not the ones who bought at the perfect price. They are the ones who built a disciplined, yield-generating position and held through the volatility with a clear plan.
Disclaimer: This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are those of the author and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
